Posted on January 9, 2012 - by Venik

Another Russian revolution? Not so fast | Natalia Antonova

Ordinary people in Russia haven’t been this politically active since 1991 but they’re hoping for evolution rather than revolution

Although the winter holidays traditionally serve as a distraction from politics – what with the caviar sandwiches and the off-key singing at the dinner table – it is undeniable that Russian society made a tremendous shift last month, and that the political slogans chanted on the streets of Moscow have not been forgotten in the midst of traditional new year’s toasts.

Mass opposition rallies on 10 and 24 December, fuelled just as much by general discontent as they were by allegations of brazen fraud at the 4 December State Duma elections, showed that the Russian middle class in particular is now a political force to be reckoned with. Far from being a simple victory for the country’s established opposition figures, the events of December 2011 were first and foremost a victory for comparatively apolitical people – from businessmen who spent the summer of 2010 putting out wildfires when the country’s emergencies ministry couldn’t cope, to teachers grown weary of education reform.

Ordinary people in Russia haven’t been this politically active since 1991 – and the Kremlin has responded in various ways, most notable of which was the departure of Vladislav Surkov, former first deputy head of the presidential administration. The intellectual Surkov, one of the most fascinating political figures to emerge in post-Soviet Russia so far, was widely regarded as the chief ideologist of the Kremlin – and his sudden transfer to a non-political post was seen as a victory for the opposition. Surkov himself, ever ironic and self-possessed, has quipped that he is “too odious for this brave new world”.

The Kremlin, however, has no plans to re-run the 4 December elections, as demanded by the protesters, which begs the question: what’s next? Fiery opposition figurehead Sergei Udaltsov has just left jail, for example – announcing to reporters that the opposition will “continue to remain active in this fight” – but where will this fight lead?

It’s hard to predict how the protest movement will hold up until the 4 March presidential elections, when Vladimir Putin will most likely take up the mantle of president once more. Despite a plunge in the polls, he remains Russia’s most popular politician. Yet it is fairly easy to determine the path that the opposition will not go down. And that path is revolution, as exemplified by the Arab spring.

It was tempting to draw parallels to countries such as Libya and Egypt this past December in Moscow – the weather was unseasonably warm and “spring” metaphors practically begged to be included in any observer’s report on the subject. Yet the majority of people who turned out for peaceful rallies in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia regard any kind of violent uprising as both undesirable and downright impossible. Although none of them were around to witness the bloody events of 1917, most have an almost ingrained aversion to the very word “revolution”. It’s not that the word is necessarily frightening any more – it’s just too bombastic. It doesn’t accurately describe people holding up humorous signs making fun of the timidity of state-run television or urging Putin to ski off to Siberia.

None of this is a guarantee of a safely boring 2012, of course. Major budget cuts will most likely take place following the 4 March elections, something that may drastically alter the tone of the protest movement. And observer Mark Galeotti has recently pointed out that while it is unlikely that the government will use brute force against peaceful protesters, an accident of some kind could result in a tragedy that could ignite a revolt.

Still, for now, there is plenty of room to hope that Russia is in for an evolution rather than a revolution. The new year’s holiday, traditionally a family-oriented event, has given people a chance to spend time with their relatives, grow sufficiently tired of them (there is a reason why mother-in-law jokes are so popular in Russia – and that is because familial discord is a kind of national sport), and gear up for more political action. The next rally in Moscow is tentatively scheduled for 4 February.

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