Posted on August 10, 2008 - by Venik
War in Georgia: What’s Coming
The EU wants to blame Russia for the escalating conflict in Georgia, but Brussels cannot ignore the terrible casualties inflicted by Georgian artillery on the civilian population of South Ossetia. Today’s visit to Tbilisi by France’s foreign minister suggests that Saakashvili is being pressured by the EU to back down.
The US, on the other hand, assumed a more russophobic stance in the UN. Georgia is considered to be a close US ally and the US has to maintain at least an appearance of supporting its allies. The Kremlin understands this and does not pay much attention to Zalmay Khalilzad’s soliloquies in the UNSC.
Georgia claims to have withdrawn its troops from South Ossetia but there has been no independent confirmation of this claim. Both the Russian military and the South Ossetian self-defense force insist that fighting continues in the province. Whether the Georgian army withdrew from South Ossetia or was kicked out from there by the Russian tanks is a matter of perspective.
One important development over the past day was Russia’s decision not to negotiate directly with Saakashvili. While officially Russia is concealing its desire to see a regime change in Tbilisi, recent announcements by Russia’s foreign minister and its UN envoy leave little doubt that Russia will attempt to unseat Saakashvili.
So what will happen in Georgia in the upcoming days and weeks? Every day of Russian aerial bombardment costs Georgia’s impoverished economy tens of millions of dollars. There is little Georgian military can do to counter the Russian air force. Saakashvili’s army is retreating in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia’s Black Sea coast is patrolled by the Russian Navy, which already sank one of Georgia’s few missile boats.
The port in Poti has been destroyed and thousands of Russian Marines are reported to have landed in Abkhazia to support the locals. Saakashvili’s army is surrounded by a vastly superior force and is being pounded by Russian artillery, bombers and naval vessels. Russia has no reason to rush the cease fire. It can easily afford to bomb Georgia for weeks and months and still be able to deal with the political fallout.
There are tens of thousands of experienced and combat-ready Russian troops stationed close to the Georgian border in neighboring Chechnya and North Ossetia. These troops can be moved to Georgia in a matter of hours, should Russia decide to expand its military presence in the country. Russian air strikes are moving closer to Tbilisi itself and public support in the capital for Saakashvili is quickly eroding in light of growing realization that neither the US nor the NATO will offer any support beyond good wishes.
By launching a sneak attack against South Ossetia and massacring over 2,000 civilians, Saakashvili just lost about fifteen percent of his country’s territory. There is no possibility now of either South Ossetia or Abkhazia ever returning under Tbilisi’s control. Russia will not back down from this fight. The only chance Georgia has of returning the situation to the status quo as of August 6 is by forcing Saakashvili to resign.
Knowing Saakashvili, however, his resignation seems unlikely at this time. It should be expected, therefore, that Russian troops will remain in Georgia for weeks. If and when Russians decide to pull out, they will retain a significant military presence in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They may also continue bombing military targets in Georgia even after pulling out their ground forces.
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