Posted on August 14, 2008 - by Venik

Russians in Georgia: Goals and Consequences

The Christian Science Monitor – of all newspapers – published perhaps the most relevant and concise description of what Moscow has achieved so far with its blitzkrieg response to Georgia’s sneak-attack on South Ossetia.

“If the Russians stop hostilities now, they will have redrawn the whole strategic situation in the Caucasus, to the detriment of the Americans,” says François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. “No one will invest in Georgia, in oil pipelines, in new ventures [there] now…. The game is over. In the new version of the Great Game, the Russians can cash in.” The scope of the “victory” is substantial: Moscow controls territory and leverage, has incapacitated the Georgian military, denied Tblisi its much-hoped-for NATO status, and put the Georgian leader it despises – Mikheil Saakashvili – into a tough position.

It has issued a symbolic warning to Ukraine’s westward leanings, asserted clout in oil and gas pipeline futures, denied Georgia the possibility of reclaiming breakaway provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and affirmed a deeply Russian set of hard-line political values regarding the disputed front lines of the old cold war.

Moreover, by agreeing to halt its military on Tuesday, working with French mediator Nicolas Sarkozy, and only “recommending” that Mr. Saakashvili step down, Moscow is arguing it has reasonably protected its interests and not overthrown a sovereign state.”

(Russia’s big Caucasus win, by Robert Marquand and Fred Weir, The Christian Science Monitor, August 14, 2008)

America’s response to what the White House called “disproportionate use of force” by Russia for the most part has been limited to attacks on Russia’s image. There is a popular but misguided opinion in the US and the EU that the Russians want to be liked by the West. They don’t. They want to be respected and they want their opinion to matter.

For nearly a decade Russia has been complying with the West’s every demand. Russia withdrew from Cuba and Vietnam; it did little to oppose NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia; it awarded lucrative oil and gas contract to Western energy giants; it offered its political support in dealing with Iran and nuclear non-proliferation. How much respect did all of this earn Russia in the eyes of Washington and Brussels? None. NATO is continuing to expand closer to the Russian borders; Americans dropped the 1972 ABM treaty and are deploying missile defenses in Eastern Europe; neither the US nor the EU paid any attention to Russia’s position on Kosovo’s independence, which led to the escalation of the situation in South Ossetia.

Widespread destruction in Tskhinvali was the result of an overnight bombardment on August 7 by the Georgian army.

It took them a while, but the Russian leadership has finally realized that brute force is the only language understood by the US and the European Union. The US is not trying to hide its imperialistic tendencies, bombing nations around the globe. And despite modern Europe’s civilized facade, the best way to work with the EU is still to speak softly and carry a big stick. In the end, very few in Russia care how loved Russia is in the world, as long as its opinions carry weight and its interests are protected.

Will Russian economy suffer as the result of the scuffle with Georgia? Not a chance. The brutal truth is that the world needs Russia’s resources and influence. It’s a very simple equation: Russia has what the rest of the world needs and nobody can take it by force. Whether you like them or hate them, you will have to find a common language with the Russians. In the past few months the world gained a better appreciation of the importance of having stable sources of affordable energy. Russia is the biggest such source.

McCain says “kick the Russians out of G8”. He’s an old, sick man, and we should excuse his stupidity. Some Western analysts say let’s punish Russia by jacking up insurance rates for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. This is not just funny – it’s hysterical:  America’s best response to what it believes to be a Russian aggression against its ally is: “We’ll raise your insurance rates!” And Russia will pay the premiums by raising oil and gas prices. Brilliant. Bush decided to cancel a joint naval exercise with Russia. It’s not really clear who this punishes more: Russia or the US Navy. In any case, the Russian Navy is doing plenty of exercising in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia.

Injured Ossetian civilians are recuperating in a makeshift underground hospital in Tskhinvali.

In a big rush to tarnish Russia’s image, the West should not forget its bottom line. The US these days is not exactly what one would call an economic powerhouse, thanks to the efforts of its president and the flagships of its banking industry. Pentagon generals are up to their epaulets in Iraqis and Afghanis, having to borrow hundreds of billions from the Chinese and the Russians just to keep fighting for another few months. Today Russia told Washington to choose between a partnership with Russia or the love affair with Saakashvili. Prices at the gas pumps across America and the future of the US economy depend on this choice.

But let’s get to the situation on the ground in Georgia. According to an official report by the Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, Russia’s losses between August 7 and August 13 were 74 soldiers dead, 171 wounded, and 19 missing in action. According to Nagovitsin, Georgian soldiers captured by Russian forces will be exchanged for the pilot of the Russian reconnaissance plane downed by Georgian air defenses during the first day of the war.

The disarmament ultimatum issued by the Russian side was accepted by some Georgian army units. According to Gen. Nagovitsin, some 700 firearms have been surrendered as of August 13. On August 11, soldiers from the 4th VDV (paratroopers) regiment captured a high-ranking Georgian staff officer, who had a detailed map of the attack against Abkhazia, planned by the Georgian army. On August 11 Russia airlifted several thousand troops and light armor to Abkhazia to counter the planned Georgian invasion. Abkhazian separatists, supported by Russian aircraft, launched preemptive strike and forced Georgian troops out of the Kodori region of Abkhazia, used by the Georgian army as a staging area. The Georgian army withdrew from Kodori almost without a fight. According to official reports from Abkhazia, two Georgian and one Abkhazian soldier were killed in the operation.

Russian artillery in South Ossetia shelling Georgian army positions.

Monsieur Sarkozy’s heroic peace-making efforts gave Russia considerable freedom to implement “additional security measures” throughout Georgia under the peace agreement. After being told by Sarkozy that the Russian tanks are forty miles away from Tbilisi, Saakashvili agreed to Russia’s conditions for a cease-fire. The NY Times ran a good story detailing the French-led peace-negotiating process.

Unnamed senior US administration officials say that since the fighting begun last week, Russia moved between 8,000 and 10,000 troops to Georgia and that now their total strength in Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions is at least 15,000. To me this sounds like a realistic estimate. Just a reminder: Georgia has a professional US-trained army of 32,000.

Russian forces were stationed to the north of Gori to prevent reprisal attacks by the South Ossetian militia against Georgians living in the city. According to the representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Borisov, these forces have now moved back to Tskhinvali, transferring control of Gori to Georgian police. Small Russian detachments will remain in Gori for two more days to observe the actions of Georgian police. Borisov reported that he toured Gori with Georgian officials and several foreign ambassadors and that the rumors of widespread destruction and looting are not true. Gori still has running water and electricity.

Vehicle recovery and repair units, escorted by armored personnel carriers, are moving around the countryside outside or Gori and Senaki, collecting heavy weapons left behind by the retreating Georgian army. Russian planes and helicopter gunships continue flying combat air patrols, however, there were no new reports of aerial attacks. BBC footage from Tskhinvali showed camouflaged Russian “Tunguska” anti-aircraft  vehicles.

Russian Finance Ministry announced that it allocated $400 million to be spent  by the end of the year on reconstruction of Tskhinvali. Russian gas and electric crews are working around the clock to restore basic services to the city. Electricity, local TV broadcasts and newspaper deliveries are expected to be restored by Friday.

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